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Political betting is booming and the interest shown by punters at the most granular levels means bookmakers and betting platforms need to stay on their toes. Often a sudden move in constituency prices is a signal for a story, gaffe or critical piece of polling about to break where those on the ground remain one step ahead of the oddsmakers.
Those with the keenest interest should take note of the odds offered for the key constituencies and keep their ears close to the ground in a bid to profit — after all, a number cruncher based in London , Gibraltar or even further afield would find it impossible to stay abreast of daily doorstep comings and goings in every constituency, even though they need to offer a market on each one.
We recommend keeping an eye on the following constituencies where betting activity suggests punters are sniffing out a changing of the guard, while our election betting expert has also taken stock of how each party leader will perform on home turf. Party leaders first Boris Johnson has the smallest constituency majority of a prime minister since and in the election the PM's majority was halved to roughly 5, to become one of the most high-profile races in this election.
Although it would be one of the stories of the campaign if he were to suffer a defeat, the betting suggests it might not be as much of an upset as some sections of the media would think. De Piero won by just votes from the Tories in , but Brexit is the main issue here in this 69 per cent leave voting seat that Boris has in his crosshairs.
The marginal seat of Finchley And Golders Green is poised on a knife edge, but has a lot more significance beyond the numbers. Margaret Thatcher's old stomping ground was traditionally a Labour-Tory swing seat, but now the Lib Dems' new star Luciana Berger is a serious disrupter. This seat has been dominated by the situation surrounding the highly respected former attorney general Dominic Grieve, who lost the Tory whip over his remain stance.
The Liberal Democrats have stepped aside in favour of Grieve, who is standing as an Independent. This is crucial because this leafy, affluent Buckinghamshire seat will test the strength of anti-Brexit feeling among traditional, moderate Conservatives. Should the Tories lose seats like this, the bottom could be taken out from under them in their quest for their majority and the betting suggests Grieve is making ground on his old employers fast. Strident Brexiteer Iain Duncan Smith has held the seat for a whopping 27 years — but younger, more ethnically diverse remain voters could be about to change that as part of a big drive to unseat the former Tory leader.
At the last election, the SNP beat the Liberal Democrats by only two votes, making this the single most marginal constituency in the UK, so it's unsurprising it's been such a focal point of the betting this time around, where in theory one bettor who matched their ballot slip to their betting slip would have affected the outcome by 50 per cent.
Taking in the famous golf resort of St Andrews, it has become a struggle between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP with the Conservatives throwing their hats into the ring for good measure too. The Tories' most marginal seat in the country, the area began with a Conservative majority of more than 2, in but has since shrunk to just 31, getting folk in the local Labour Party very excited indeed.
However, this is one of the seats where the Conservatives could be helped by Nigel Farage 's decision not to field Brexit Party candidates, meaning the Tories' odds here have shortened considerably since that bombshell. Southampton Itchen is home to two universities and Labour are understandably targeting them in their bid to wrestle control of this key seat, but consistent data indicating the likelihood to turn out along with political persuasion between older voters and students tips the balance in favour of a Tory hold.
This is an election not many — including us political odds hawks — saw coming and even fewer of us want. More on the likelihood of both later. True, these outcomes were both the outsiders in their binary pair, but the odds still accurately displayed the prospect of both taking place, to a greater degree than some polls. The most valuable take away from betting markets is that they provide a crowdsourced expression of the probabilities of a range of outcomes taking place, based on a highly liquid futures market with millions of participants all attempting to profit from an accurate forecast.
The polls might show the Tories way out in front of Labour, but the betting paints a far more realistic picture of the actual likelihood of Boris securing a majority, while on the day of Labour's manifesto launch, party grandees better avoid checking the odds, which are bleak in terms of their majority chances.
Very little explanation required here in this one-horse race. The Conservatives had their majority wiped out in but still won 55 more seats than Labour. This is where it gets interesting. The most likely coalition is between the Tories and Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, which is quite the thought. Lee: In , you had Donald Trump in the U. And essentially, they were three high-profile scenarios, that kind of all went against the polls.
If you looked at the constituencies in the U. What are some of the most popular bets that people have been placing so far? Lee: A lot of interest in in the various states. So Florida currently now has swung back in favor of Donald Trump. And you rely on Marketplace to be that objective, credible source, each and every day.
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