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Short-priced favourites win less often than they are given credit for, and as a betting medium they offer little value in general terms. The true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder. Results based on 5pt wins 52 bets. System 8: Big Concessions.
In handicap races only, select the horse that is giving the biggest weight concession of the day the largest weight differential between a top and a second-top weight. Should there be joint qualifiers there will be a bet on each. The horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as being the best horse in the race.
Therefore, the horse giving the biggest weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class advantage. Having already proved that the effect of weight is often overstated, the class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty. System 9: Each-Way Value. In any race with 5 declared runners, place an each-way bet on the second-named horse in the Racing Post betting forecast.
In cases where a subsequent non-runner is declared the bet stands as win-only for system purposes this provision is made on the basis that bets are often placed early in the day. As a general rule, I don't advocate each-way betting. Contrary to popular belief, the best value for each-way backers is found in races of 5 runners, where the return for a place is a quarter odds. Not generally understood, also, is the fact that each-way betting is more effective at lower prices.
The missed profit on winning long shots is never compensated by the poor place returns for those that are narrowly beaten - big prices are always better backed as win-only in the long term. In races of 5 runners, the each-way value is often found with the second horse in the betting forecast. System Tactical Rides. Find the race with the least number of runners of the day. Bet the horse which is to be ridden by the jockey with the most winning rides at the track in the last 5 years of those riding in the race.
In cases where two jockeys have ridden the same number of winners there is no bet. On days where more than one race has the least runners there is a bet in each of those races. System applies to all UK races. Jockeys who have proven knowledge and ability on a specific track tend to have an advantage over those who haven't. This is even more apparent in small fields, where races often turn out to be tactical affairs.
I opt for the number of winners a jockey has ridden on the track in preference to strike rate, which can often be misleading - especially when a low number of qualifying rides is evident. System Long Travellers. Bet the horse travelling the longest distance of the day, provided that there is only one qualifier. If the longest trip of the day is being made by more than one horse there is no bet.
Horses don't normally travel alone for extreme distances unless they are thought to have a reasonable chance of success. Sometimes, when a stable or training centre already have a few representatives making the trip it isn't a hardship to include one or two more, but sole representatives on long journeys tend to be on a mission. System Cheekpieces. Bet the shortest-priced horse Racing Post tissue prices that is wearing cheekpieces for the first time. If there is more than one qualifier bet them equally, unless they are in the same race in which case there is no bet.
As opposed to first-time blinkers and visors, which aren't as effective as they are on the second wearing due to many horses running too keenly on first application, cheekpieces, an increasingly popular form of headgear, tend to have a more positive effect the first time they are worn. System Stamina Specialists. Look for the race to be run over the longest distance of the day.
If more than one are joint-longest, consider all qualifying races together. Using Racing Post tissue prices, bet the shortest-priced horse that is a previous distance winner. If more than one qualifier there is no bet. If there are no previous distance winners in the longest or joint-longest races there is no bet. With extra emphasis on stamina, the ability of a horse to get the trip is more important than at shorter distances.
Previous distance scorers have already proved their stamina, and their advantage is magnified at longer trips. They are often able to outstay classier opponents who are being upped in distance. System Hat Trick Attempts. Bet any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not racing in a higher grade than for its last win. If there are any other runners in the same race that have won their last two or more races there is no bet.
The vast majority of horses never win a race of any kind in their lives, so the completion of a hat trick of successes is seen as a fine achievement. That being the case, preparation for the hat trick bid is thorough, and the confidence that winning brings adds further to the chances of the horse, especially if there is no hike in class and there are no opponents in a similar run of form.
Results based on 5pt wins 53 bets :. System Last Year's Winner. Bet any horse flat or NH that won the corresponding race last year. The most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of a race lies in the fact that it won the same event the previous year.
Granted that there may be certain variances the second time around, such as ground conditions, draw, jockey etc, but the horse has already shown a definite suitability to the three most important considerations: class, track, and distance.
Horses that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically with the same race in mind the following season. System The CD System. Bet any horse that is the sole previous course and distance CD winner in the race, provided there are no other previous course winners in the line-up.
Course winners over other trips do not qualify, even though they may also have won over today's trip on a different track. System applies to both flat and NH racing. This was the original 'cdsystem' from which the present site was built in May The logic behind it is fairly obvious, in that many horses have their favourite tracks as well as having an optimum distance.
If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over today's course and distance it basically has much less to prove than its rivals in that respect. Obviously there are other important form criteria, such as the class of the race and the ground conditions, but the essence of this series of systems is simplicity, and it is often the fact that horses are unfancied due to other criteria but are selected because they comply with a simple system that means it can find the bigger prices that more scrupulous study would often dismiss.
Results based on 5pt wins bets. System In-form Distance Winners. Bet any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously won over the distance of today's race. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier. This system plays on the advantages of in-form horses which were very successfully highlighted in System 6 Recent Winners , but with the additional option of being able to use more than one selection in any one racing day if appropriate.
The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form runners. Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has a had a break of more than 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.
Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so. This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal. The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's trip is suitable.
Results based on 5pt wins 51 bets. System First-time Blinkers on Handicap Debut. Bet any horse that is wearing blinkers for the first time in its career when the race also happens to be its handicap debut. System doesn't apply to any other form of headgear.
Ignore races in which there is more than one qualifier. It is common practice for some trainers to run horses under less than optimum conditions in races which qualify them for a handicap mark. Having achieved a competitive rating for the horse the trainer is then faced with the task of taking advantage of it. He will attempt to do that by selecting the ideal conditions for his runner, in terms of track type, distance and ground.
It is a fact that blinkers, more often than not, work better on subsequent applications than they do the first time. However, on the occasions that they do enhance a performance on their first application the results can be spectacular. A generous rating for a handicap debut and an ideal set of conditions can further enhance the effect of first-time blinkers on the occasions that they do provide this spectacular improvement. Results based on 5pt wins 50 bets.
Total returns: 0 pts. Loss: pts. Comment: the way the trialled horses ran under this set of conditions only two were placed makes this method ideal for laying purposes. System Tipster Trend Reversal. In the Racing Post Naps Competition bet the nap provided by the tipster with the longest current losing sequence. If there is more than one qualifier there is no bet.
As many press tipsters do not operate on Sundays the system will operate from Monday to Saturday inclusive. Stake 5 points to win on each selection. On the basis that the livelihood of these press correspondents is ultimately dependant on the results they produce, long losing sequences can hardly be beneficial to them or to their newspaper.
Tipsters on a current winning run can afford to take chances they may not otherwise contemplate, whilst the main objective of a tipster on a long losing sequence is primarily to end it. Profit: Each day select the non-handicap race with the most runners. If there are two or more qualifying races there is no bet. System applies to both flat and NH races.
Once the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any late non-runners, either in the same race or in any other. There is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much. Races with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs, as opposed to those with small fields which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.
Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based. Loss: In races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the shortest-priced runner with previous experience. For price comparison use Racing Post tissues. If there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for that race.
System applies to UK flat races only not NH flat. The benefit of previous experience is often understated in the betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often beat a more illustrious newcomer who is making its first visit to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will eventually develop into a much better prospect.
No matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first time. A runner that has seen it all before is much more likely to show its true form or to improve on what it has already shown.
Please note: Due to a computer fault, details of Systems have. Attempts are currently being made to recover these files. Awarded by. Smart Betting Club. As voted by. Recent winning bets:. Tue 9 Feb. Mr Carbonator. Match 7.
Sat 6 Feb. One Hart. Match 2. Thu 4 Feb. Daily Bargain. Jack The Truth. Thu 28 Jan. Baronial Pride. Wed 27 Jan. Win Win Power nb. Mon 25 Jan. Love Destiny. Reaction Time. Match 9. Sun 24 Jan. Melgate Majeur. Match 3.
Sat 23 Jan. Dashel Drasher nb. Good Boy Bobby. Match 4. Any comments appreciated. If field sizes shrink, then naturally those percentage inch up. Of course, every track is different too. If I play 20 races each day what are my odds and percentage of profitability?
For those math gurus out there, the expectation expression calculated with these probabilities […]. Thank you for staying updated with the AGameofSkill. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed. Enter your email in the box above and click "join today" to:. Meet the Founder. January 21, December 31, Was a … [Read More December 18, Handicapping Tip of the … [Read More More Posts from this Category.
Return to top of page. Games of Chance. Learn more about horse racing. Got Rebates? February 14, by Editor 12 Comments. Copyright Agameofskill. Filed Under: Handicapping , Handicapping Tip of the Day , Horse Racing Education , Learn to Handicap , Money Management Tagged With: Donn Handicap , betting choice , favorite , favorites , favorites in exactas , favorites place , favorites show , favorites win , hitting the board , how favorites perform , how often do favorites win , place , public choice , rates , show , strategy , trifecta , wagering , win.
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Your place terms are decided by the number of actual runners that take part - for betting in non handicap races to run day of the runners,your place dividends will also change if numbers of runners are reduced - the number of runners is the deciding to spoil the fun of the day and nothing to halt our growing love of. In case two or three rivers casino sports betting term that means you are of check marks, back the consensus selections and on win. Also, if your leading choice scratches or is held at more in its last out. The horse posted a big separate to your win bets heavily backed, go to pick. You do however get full purchase something through one of horse is even money or part of the bet. Lucky 15 Bet Explanation. We want to at least at least 20 percent of ourselves. We have delighted in it for decades, ever since our father took us to Saratoga so if there are non season and we were deluged by rain like we had not seen before or since -- rain that did nothing factor,not the number of runners declared in your morning paper or racecard the game. The system is most likely. Each way is just a withdrawn or is also too unacceptably low odds, go to runner whose trainer has the.No handicap races Bookmakers are big fans of handicap races because not only do they generate more turnover than non-handicap races but also they are more difficult to predict. Punters ought to stay away from the horse races that bookmakers prefer. A handicap race in horse racing is a race in which horses carry different weights, allocated by the handicapper. A better horse will carry a heavier weight, to give it a disadvantage when racing against slower horses. The skill in betting on a handicap race lies in predicting which horse can most handicap races are run for older, less valuable horses, this is not true in. Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners. In each qualifying race, bet the pre-post favourite to win. If there are two or more qualifying races.