They got the Scottish referendum right when some polls suggested a Yes vote, and in the general election they consistently made the Tories the largest party, even when some polls suggested a Labour victory. And although they took a hammering from those who bet on an outright Conservative majority, the bookies did at least shorten the odds in the days immediately before voting. Which means it may be of more than passing significance that bookies are now telling The Independent they are very confident of a Remain vote and may even make the In camp still stronger favourites in the final run-up to the vote.
And possibly over the next couple of days the Remain odds will shorten even further. If the money [people are betting] comes to something — as is happening here — you should respect that money. Hjalmar Kvam, the head of pre-match at William Hill, told The Independent he personally thought the real chances of Britain voting to stay in were per cent, making a Remain victory more likely than even current odds would suggest.
Mr Goddard, however, insisted that the real reason for the high number of Leave bets was that the odds on Remain have been so unattractive. Mr Goddard said the serious money, involving sums that might make you think quite hard before betting, were going on Remain. And that blows all the fivers on Leave out of the water.
People tend to bet according to what they want to happen. Mr Goddard, however, insisted it was time to trust the wisdom of the betting crowd. The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?
Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty? Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another? Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws? Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union? Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK? Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK? The poll results suggest the result of the EU referendum is on a knife edge, but what do the bookies say? The choice faced by British voters in the EU referendum today is in some ways as simple as a coin toss: In or Out?
Of course it is far more complicated than that, with the UK's economic and political future at stake. But when the arguments for and against Brexit so often seem to be based on interpretation rather than facts , it can be very difficult to get a clear idea of which side is winning. The confused picture emerging from the EU referendum poll results lends little clarity to the situation. So what do the bookies make of the likely EU referendum result? Currently a vote to Remain is odds on - but then this is only a two horse race A vote to stay in Europe remains odds on with the bookies.
After drifting last week in the wake of three polls showing a lead for Leave in one day of poll results, the odds have hardened again. The EU referendum has overtaken last year's General Election and the Scottish independence referendum as the largest political betting event of all-time. Odds from oddschecker at By Ann Gripper Executive Editor.
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You can unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice. Video Loading Video Unavailable. Click to play Tap to play. The video will auto-play soon 8 Cancel Play now. Chances of EU referendum results. The EU Referendum and your money. IN OUT.
The EU referendum has overtaken last year's General Election and the Scottish independence referendum as the largest political betting event of all-time. Odds from oddschecker at By Ann Gripper Executive Editor. Get US and UK politics insight with our free daily email briefing straight to your inbox Sign up When you subscribe we will use the information you provide to send you these newsletters. Our Privacy Notice explains more about how we use your data, and your rights. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Thank you for subscribing We have more newsletters Show me See our privacy notice. Video Loading Video Unavailable. Click to play Tap to play. The video will auto-play soon 8 Cancel Play now. Chances of EU referendum results. The EU Referendum and your money. IN OUT. EU Referendum Follow DailyMirror. News all Most Read Most Recent. Coronavirus Experts say people in the UK should be vigilant for four more suspected coronavirus symptoms - - on top of the 'classic three' of a persistent cough, loss of sense of taste and smell, or fever.
TikTok A woman took to TikTok to share the results of a DIY turmeric face mask she made to help calm her acne after she saw the hack online - but it didn't go as planned. Royal Mail Ltd. Patricia Stewart, who suffers from bone disease, is heard groaning in agony when she asks the postman to help her but he refuses and walks off without even alerting a neighbour. Police defend probe into Libby Squire's killer before he raped and murdered her Murder Humberside Police have defended their actions after it came to light that Pawel Relowicz committing a series of sexually-motivated crimes in the months before he raped and killed Libby Squire.
Disease X could 'wipe out 75m' and spark pandemics 'every 5 years after Covid' Coronavirus Scientists have predicted we could face a pandemic every half decade caused by "zoonotic" diseases - when infections move from animals to humans. They made Remain the odds-on favourites for the EU Referendum. They claimed their odds were better indicators than polls that were veering all over the place. When The Independent spoke to him earlier this week, Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, had seemed the least confident of all the bookies.
They just had to do their best to make money. We do it to turn a profit or at least not lose too much. So if most of the cash went on Remain, as it did, bookies would have to follow the money and make Remain the favourites. Ahead of voters going to the polls, all the bookies warned that favourites sometimes lose. They might be more likely to win, but their victory could not be guaranteed. But as he had earlier explained to The Independent, one problem with betting was the vast amount of wishful thinking that went on.
Talking to The Independent before Thursday, Mr Shaddick also warned that Gamblers were unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole because they were more likely to be men. Neither do we have enough evidence from different elections to be confident — the era of big, liquid multi-million pound political betting markets is a relatively new one.
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When you look at their past performance, they have been relatively successful. Where opinion polling tends to be irregular and noisy because of the different sampling methods used by the various companies involved, betting data is collected continuously and on a consistent basis. Prediction markets successfully forecast the outcome of the Scottish referendum of , for example.
Whereas the opinion polls suggested the outcome was uncertain and increasingly hard to call nearer the vote, the betting odds always suggested that the probability of a majority vote for independence was quite small. So what are the odds for the Brexit referendum? These data are based on www. The most active is Matchbook , which frequently offers multiple small variations in its odds during a single day. You can also see the timing of some key events which might have been expected to influence the odds, such as when David Cameron announced the referendum date.
This suggests that those placing bets did not feel this event would have a significant effect on the referendum outcome. The only good news for Brexit supporters is that there has been some whittling away of the advantage enjoyed by the Remain campaign since the beginning of March. Even so, there is still a clear feeling among those with a monetary interest in the outcome that the UK will remain part of the European Union.
Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union? Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK? Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK? What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit? Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe? What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?
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