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However, Rutgers put up those numbers against defenses that gave up 4. Oregon earned those yards against defenses that allowed 3. The most impressive aspect of his analysis is accounting for injuries. In his essay on his math model , he speaks vaguely about evaluating for defensive injuries. In a panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conferences, he gave us some more juicy information.
His research shows that cornerbacks are more important than linebackers. He cited some examples from the NFL season in which some defenses performed just fine without a star linebacker but just crumbled without an average cornerback. For example, the Steelers played well without James Harrison, while the 49ers were just as good in 3 games without Patrick Willis. Moreover, he also considers situational trends in making his betting picks.
For example, consider NFL teams that win back to back games as the underdog. In the next game, suppose these teams are. These teams are The math shows that this trend is statistically significant. Bob only uses trends that make sense. In the above example, the team is ripe for a letdown after winning two games. Visiting a non-division team makes that letdown even more likely. Having an edge over the Vegas books is nice, but it does not guarantee making a profit from gambling.
Bankroll management is crucial. Putting down too much money on games can wipe out a bankroll. In the extreme example, suppose someone puts all of his bankroll on one game. To properly manage a bankroll, one must understand the Kelly criteria. No one can claim to use mathematical principles for investing without understanding this idea. This applies to quantitative hedge funds as well as the sports market.
Bob uses the Kelly criteria to suggest betting 1. To get a perspective on the potential long term growth, Dr. He considers sports an investment, not gambling. The real win percentage might be Using a little probability, we can estimate the distribution of this win rate given the number of games in Dr. The width of this distribution decreases with more games. Those are some good odds. This results from the uncertainty in picking a small number of patients to participate in the study. The odds that Dr.
Bob is not profitable is significantly lower than the odds your doctor is providing treatment based on a bogus study. To see the pricing of his subscription services, click here. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing. Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I will just book mark this site. Bob but his numbers here are a little inflated by success in the previous decade.
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