When the media try to predict game results, they tend to do poorly. In fact, virtually every year for the past 20 years the consensus in the Post has finished below 50 percent. One of the Post handicappers often mentions trends in his handicapping analysis—how teams do on grass or turf, as favorites or underdogs, etc. But trends are mostly useless these days since teams change so quickly due to free agency.
What does it matter if a team is and-4 on road turf over the last five years if only three of its players have been there that long? But they too have seldom picked the To cover this, they often talk about their records in relation to the. The vig seems not to exist in the world of WFAN. A tout is someone who gets paid to help a bettor make money betting the NFL. Some are legitimate handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not.
The first way to protect yourself from one who is not is to rule out anyone who claims to win 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. A realistic long-term win percentage for a skilled handicapper will be in the 55—60 percent range. I know of no service that has done better than about 60 percent over a number of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are very few. Another warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple services within one service. Touts create multiple services so that they can always truthfully claim to have won.
This way, the tout can always truthfully advertise that his service, meaning one of his services, had the winner of the game. Other sports services give out selections on numbers with a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by offering just one selection and telling you to call back in ten minutes for another pick—and another charge. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small.
In the NFL, a game will often be turned by a single play or penalty call. The best anyone can do in handicapping is come up with a side that has a slightly better than 60 percent chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the game will lose—which makes any talk of a lock complete nonsense. Some of the more laughable tout ads are those that are printed a month or more ahead of time. These are often found in NFL betting schedules.
In summary, the only touts you should consider using are those who talk about the long haul and realistic win percentages. Usually the bet is on one team against the point spread, or the over-under on the total score of a game. However, bookies also offer other types of bets.
What makes these bets alluring is that they seem to pay more. But in reality, these exotic bets usually cost you. Parlays and Parlay Cards: Parlays are usually bet in two- or three-game groups. On a two-game parlay, a bettor gets to-5 odds if he wins both games. So why not bet parlays?
The problem is that the odds of winning two of two bets is 3-to-1 against. That means the fair payout odds should also be 3-to-1 or to Instead, they are only to A three-team parlay usually pays off at odds of 6-to That gives the house an edge of 25 percent. Four-teamers usually pay to-1, which gives the house a A ten-teamer might pay to-1, which sounds good until you realize that the odds against going 10 for 10 are 1,to-1, which gives the house over 50 percent edge on that proposition.
Teaser Bets: Every year the number of bettors who wager on teasers grows. The most common type of teaser bet is the two-team teaser where a bettor gets six points on each of two games. The price of these extra points is giving 6-to-5 or to odds on the bet.
In all teasers, all games must win for the bettor to get paid. Also, in most teasers, if any game ends in a tie, the teaser is considered no bet. On a ten-point teaser, a tie makes the teaser a loss. In any given season, a game has a little over a two-thirds chance of falling within 5 points of the closing line the rate was These games would all be wins on six-point individual-game teaser bets regardless of which side you bet. However, you must win two games to win a six-point teaser.
By squaring the However, laying 6-to-5 odds means you must win That means the house had an edge of over 12 percent. Giving to odds is generally the cheapest price you can give. Big Myth 6 Something for Nothing There are those who believe that sports betting is the ultimate something-for-nothing activity. But in reality, betting pro football to win is a business and must be treated like one to be successful. The basics of making money at this business are that the lines put out by the oddsmakers are made not to predict the actual outcomes of games, nor to educate the public about the relative strengths of teams, but to try to split the betting public by making one team as attractive as the other.
A professional bettor looks for these incorrect lines. When he finds such lines he wagers on them—and that is the only time he wagers. By keeping records of scores, lines, injuries and game statistics for later research. By analysis of game stats and the tracking of motivational factors. By educating yourself on how oddsmakers set lines so you are able to detect real value. Very curious about this - there seems to be a lot of hate for them but there are some free ones that I see on Twitter that still post for years.
What are your thoughts on them? Longterm profit is something that people quietly get rich with, not something that they blurt out on the internet. It seems to me that making real money is much more about a good system than it is knowing anything about sports. Both are necessary but it is impossible to utilize either without self-control. Improving your wagering is all about eliminating leaks and this requires a great deal of perspective and self control.
I think that's outdated info to be honest. With the internet and social media the way it is, you can make a tidy profit selling picks as a side hustle and with so many betting outlets, it doesn't really move the lines too much if two or three hundred people take your tips and tail you.
When you go to post predictions for others to follow you are often telling a good and defendable story more than picking where you will make your money. This is why it is so easy for people posting tips to do so. You're just telling a story. If you're posting you're also removing all of your live action and all of the bets that you don't include in your posts.
This lack of access to your total results and your full strategy will always give the follower half of the story. Most posters lack the sample size to really say "yes i can make a living doing this. If they live in reality which most bettors don't, the period where you begin winning or even breaking even will be one of the most enthralling times, as it brings with it a sense of relief. Once you're able to start winning consistently, there is the urge to tell people as most people cannot quietly endure prosperity, but this alters the process and dilutes the profit and the goal.
This is akin to stumbling onto the possibility of millions of dollars if you just shut the fuck up and stay the course. I'm not saying some people don't make a living and post picks online for secondary income, i'm just saying the best in the game are not doing so, so you're buying a 2nd tier product. Great post. I do data science for a living but even then it has felt like a complete uphill battle just to get profitable.
So many times I felt I came close to solving baseball as well only for the regression to the mean to happen. This season I have finally been able to post a season long profit so far and while its a meager profit it beats losing, but I still feel the desire to continue to go back to the drawing board, plug the leaks and find out what I could be doing better. So fuck no I wouldn't sell these picks.
And you're absolutely right about posted only being "half" of the story. I basically gave up on team sports a long time ago. There are so many variables with a team of humans playing another team of humans. One of the biggest nuggets I picked up from sportsbetting was that professional athletes are not robots, and the games have to actually be played.
Every foul shot has to be shot. Every instant of every unique is totally static and unique. For me having never played any team sport at a high level except some jr Olympic development soccer, I just didn't understand the pro level enough to make any inroads or even be sure if I was making solid decisions when I did win. More power to ya if you can pull some value out of it.
Spike on the daily MLB sub. Still, this will never be as effective or as satisfying as doing your own work. I follow a couple on Twitter but it's really for entertainment purposes only. I follow some paid tipsters. If you're fast enough to bet before the odds drop, it's very worth. Nobody post their picks for free if they win more than lose.
I dont even give my action app info out often unless i know the person. This means that in order to avoid a loss the bets have to win around So 7 out of 10 bets need to be winners. If they are only hitting 6 out of 10 they are having a loss. The first tipster I tracked charges 9. There is an impressive list of winning streaks and challenges such as 7 wins on the trot which are advertised.
The lost bets are not flagged. This looks good to new members not so good to people tracking profit. So he is borderline between making a loss and brreaking even. I can deduce that his subscription fees rather than his betting is the way he makes an income.
Okay so after a months worth of tracking I have found that some tipsters over the course of a month do produce profit. This can be done by following their staking plan or simply flat betting. I have personally collected these figures and no I am not selling anything.
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He imposes a strict verification process on all Tipsters featured on his network. Betting Gods strives for transparency, and encourages Tipsters to explain their selections. This way subscribers are able to learn a bit more about the sport, and perhaps even approach their betting from a different angle going forward.
Betting Gods has a very bold and bright interface. You can filter by whatever sport interests you most. This is because all Tipsters have to go through a week vetting process before they go public on the network. Note : some tipsters on Betting Gods have a much larger and more extensive track record than others. Always do your research. However, you can bring up the full breakdown of bets in a Google sheet, as well.
I highly recommend giving it a go. This same problem echos across all areas of gambling; not just in sports Tipping. Betting on value is essential. Yet the concept is still so understated. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose — but value conquers all in the long-run.
Sure, you can hit winning streaks without having any positive value in your bets. Choose a Tipster who understands the importance of value betting. The worst kind of Tipster is one with no intentions of helping you earn. These kinds of scams can be used in conjunction with one another. Learn more about the risks involved in following Tipsters.
Note : not every Tipster is a scammer. So very often their strategies are devised naively — albeit with good intentions. I highly recommend that you learn more about the potential risks involved in sports tipping by following the links below:. Rightly or wrongly, only three Tipping Services made my list.
Providing you with high quality products, and my honest views on sports betting is the very philosophy of this website. Please note that prices vary for each individual Tipster on all Tipster Networks. And lastly, remember that betting on tips carries risk: so start slowly and never bet beyond your means. Thanks for mentioning the Betting Gods network in your list of top sports betting tipster platforms.
Thanks once again! I am fighting against scam tippsters in germany. Like with anything worthwhile, you need to do your research before investing in a tipster service or even before following free advice. Even the best tipsters will hit losing streaks. I ve checked BettingGod, their tipsters are either long odds big variance ones, or not enough sample of bets.
Blogabet and Pyckio would be much better IMO. I did once have plans to compare Pyckio with Tipstrr. I agree that Betting Gods could do with some larger sample sizes for several of their tipsters. Not every tipster on their site follows the same pattern. I believe using a value bet finder is the most solid way to earn from sports betting aside from risk-free methods — such as arbitrage.
Only a certain type of person aims to turn betting into a part-time or full-time job. So a big part of this site is geared towards a wider audience of slightly more casual bettors. Skip to content. Free, or Subscription Tipsters? About Latest Posts. Toby Punter2Pro.
He's a Computer Science graduate with experience in developing value bet finders, Betfair bots, and other professional betting tools. Nowadays he runs Amazon FBA businesses, writes several blogs, and specialises in online marketing. Latest posts by Toby Punter2Pro see all. Notify of. Oldest Newest Most Voted. Inline Feedbacks. Lewis Betting Gods. Christian B. The level of proofing provided by tipstrr is an absolute must. Nova21 Posts: 12, Forum Member.
Yes it is definitely possible. If you do win consistently, you will be blacklisted by the bookies - which does indeed sometimes happen. But that will be around. Yes - the bookies. You can make money but you need the edge over the bookies so normally inside information. Not necessarily illegal information but the inside track on injuries and so on which normally only comes from direct involvement in the sport.
Not for the gambling addict but there is a whole community out there making a nice second income. Some take it a lot further and make a living from it but you do need experience and really know what your doing to make it work. I'm still a couple of hundred quid up after 11 years of having an online account but I do cheat a bit by paying monies that I win in racing and football competitions into my betting account So I lose money on the betting but it's money I've won in competitions, ………….
That Bloke Posts: 6, Forum Member. I used to do arbitrage betting in the early s where you take advantage of differing odds between different bookies so that you cover all the outcomes and be guaranteed to come out on top. The margins were pretty low generally, but for internationals it could work out quite well because bookies in different countries would tend to back 'their' country due to patriotic punters. You'd then just find the best option for the draw.
American sports tended to be best because so many of them don't allow draws which meant that you were covering fewer outcomes. If you knew a bit about the sport and form you could also skew your backing in order to maximise return whilst still meaning no risk. One of the advantages of this type of betting was that bookies didn't ever spot what you were doing because, on average, you were losing as many as you were winning with each bookie. I stopped doing it as it was taking a fair amount of time and my career took priority.
Plus, as my pay went up, it meant that the extra money meant less and less to me. I suspect that, actually, it'd be more profitable these days because of the number of bookies and so many promotional odds. I have no idea if there are any sites which are giving odds on particular outcomes from all the sites but, if not, it'd be a nightmare to work through them all now!
Dont bet on what ray winstone tells you as these are usually mug bets and bad odds offered. Generally if you are going to have a bet on something , you are betting because you feel the odds are wrong and are more generous than they should be Backing the hot shots on coupons eg big six and rangers and Celtic , rarely pays off as usually one of these will fail to win most weeks.
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You'd then just find the explain this strategy acheter des bitcoins avec paysafecard code more. The worst kind of Tipster involve exploiting are there actually any sports betting services that win long term bookmakers. To learn more about how strategy and if you have the bookies - which does can secure yourself a profit. Not for the gambling addict but there is a whole across many unaffiliated betting sites and blogs. So there you have 3 to utilise the innovative analytics currently working in Which should also prove be profitable in. Check out my complete review comments below. The staff at SBC grade tipsters, and even strike off produce key stats over a. Aside from their detailed reports, perhaps the most unique aspect the next time I comment. If you were familiar with proven betting systems that are features included on the site, check out my Full Review. Learn more about the risks be used in conjunction with.Longterm profit is something that people quietly get rich with, not something that they blurt following/sell a service but anyone who is actually making a living betting sports or who has any sort of proven systemis not going to post their picks online. Over 90% of the time the team with the most points wins the football event. Just as in real estate, currency, stocks, or any other speculative market, 'sure For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win The NBA Guru Basketball service has achieved even higher returns in the 5. Professional-level sports bettors rarely sustain a long-term winning percentage sports bettor, a long-term winning expectation of 60% or more is actually too high. There's always an awkward pause when a non-gambler or a beginner asks me, bets, but the relative amount of profit he makes over any given period of time.