point differential nfl betting system

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Point differential nfl betting system

This puts the book at risk of major losses. Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. Sportsbooks will add vigorish vig as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number. During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from to then to before moving to either 2.

The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager.

The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds , the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9.

This large sample size covers a total of 3, games. During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory. The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line.

These point spreads are 2. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6. Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game. For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2. NFL rules change every season. One relatively new rule that is already starting to affect the key numbers is the extra-point distance. Kicking and extra points used to take place with the ball starting at the two yard line. This was almost a guaranteed point for NFL teams.

Since , NFL extra points begin at the 15 yard line. The pseudo yard field goals are no longer thought of as a guarantee. This rule is already changing the game. In the past couple of years, more coaches are going for two-point conversions instead of attempting an extra point. This three year sample is too small to gauge the true effect of the new extra point distance on the key numbers.

At this time, players often made more working during the season or offseason than they did playing professional football. The general motivation behind point spread betting strategy is to create an active betting market on both sides of a wager. When two teams face off, one is going to go to be better than the other. This might be a small margin or quite a large margin, depending on the talent on each side. Without a point spread or other odds, such as moneylines it would be quite easy for bettors to profit by simply taking the favorite.

Few would have any reason to wager on the underdog, particularly in situations where there is a clear advantage on one side. The point spread essentially levels the field for the underdog. It allows sportsbooks to establish a market between the favorite and the underdog, one that they can adjust based on betting action. The example is one we might see listed at sportsbooks when we view the NFL odds market. In NFL football games, there is a favorite and an underdog. At US-facing sportsbooks, the home team is also always listed at the bottom of the market.

In our above example, the visiting Cleveland Browns are facing the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. The attached is the betting odds one must lay to bet each side. For our example, these odds are both the standard , which is the default vig charged by sportsbooks on straight wagers.

The point spread, while simple to understand, can seem daunting to people who have never bet sports. Instead of winning or losing, teams must either cover the spread. The Steelers are favored by If they win the game but by less than 5. The requirement of the underdog in point spread betting markets is not to win the game outright, but to cover the spread. If they happen to win the game, we win our wager, but for this contest, the Browns only need to lose by less than 5.

The Steelers may have won the game straight up, but they failed to cover against the spread. If the final score were instead for Pittsburgh, those who bet the Steelers They won the game by 7 points, covering the spread by an extra 1.

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If the final number for a team on offense is , then that offense is performing percent better than the league average based on the opponents they have faced. However, while a number above is a positive for the offense, it is regarded as a negative on defense where anything lower than is above the league average. For example, if a team hit 97 on defense than they are actually slightly better than the league average based on the opposition they have played.

Now that we have these numbers we can move on to the final steps. The final number that you arrive at will represent the final game score. For example, if the final number for the home team is While the actual totals can vary slightly depending on the game this system has proven time and again to be very accurate in predicting winners.

Time and again this system has proven to pick winners and that is why players have dedicated the time to implementing it. While it may be too time consuming for some players it is definitely worth trying out for those that have the time to properly go through the steps and evaluate the numbers over the span of at least a couple of weeks. Your email address will not be published.

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Here are the steps required by the system to calculate the odds on a particular game. Here is a list the steps, which will be followed with some examples.

The first step of the system is to list all of the opponents the road team has played and the number of average points scored and allowed per game by each team. The second step is to add the opposition's average points for and points allowed and divide by the number of games played. This step will give an average number of points scored and an average number of points allowed by the road team's opposition.

The third step is to divide the road team's points scored by the average points allowed by the road team's opposition. The fourth step is to divide the road team's points allowed by the average points scored by the road team's opposition. Through six games, the Falcons have scored points and allowed points, which translates to The first step of the system calls for you to list all of the Falcons' opponents and their per-game averages, so you would have something similar to:.

The second step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of the points scored by the opposition gives Dividing The second step also calls for you to do the same thing for the points allowed by Atlanta's opposition. Adding the totals up gives a sum of Dividing by six gives a total of The third step is to divide Atlanta's average points scored What this means, essentially, is that Atlanta is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced.

The fourth step calls for dividing the number of points the Falcons have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. In this case, divide In this case, Atlanta's defense is performing percent worse than an average defense, based on the opposition they have faced. A total of 1. Therefore, a defensive total above 1. You will now do the same process for the home team, the Detroit Lions, who have scored The fifth step of the system calls for you to list all of the Lions' opponents, so you would have something similar to:.

The sixth step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of the average points scored by the opposition gives points Dividing by six gives you The sixth step also calls for you to do the same thing for the points allowed by Detroit's opposition. The seventh step is to divide Detroit's average points scored What this means is that Detroit is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced.

The eighth step calls for dividing the number of points the Lions have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. This section will show how the actual game predictions are calculated.

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Moneyline wagers are relatively simple. Just pick a team and the wager will either win or lose. Point spreads are a different monster. Sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game.

A good point spread should attract bettors on both sides of a game. This puts the book at risk of major losses. Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. Sportsbooks will add vigorish vig as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number.

During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from to then to before moving to either 2. The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager.

The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds , the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9. This large sample size covers a total of 3, games. During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points.

The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory. The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6. Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game.

For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2. NFL rules change every season. One relatively new rule that is already starting to affect the key numbers is the extra-point distance. Kicking and extra points used to take place with the ball starting at the two yard line. This was almost a guaranteed point for NFL teams.

Dividing by six gives a total of The third step is to divide Atlanta's average points scored What this means, essentially, is that Atlanta is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced. The fourth step calls for dividing the number of points the Falcons have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. In this case, divide In this case, Atlanta's defense is performing percent worse than an average defense, based on the opposition they have faced.

A total of 1. Therefore, a defensive total above 1. You will now do the same process for the home team, the Detroit Lions, who have scored The fifth step of the system calls for you to list all of the Lions' opponents, so you would have something similar to:. The sixth step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six.

So, adding up all of the average points scored by the opposition gives points Dividing by six gives you The sixth step also calls for you to do the same thing for the points allowed by Detroit's opposition. The seventh step is to divide Detroit's average points scored What this means is that Detroit is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced.

The eighth step calls for dividing the number of points the Lions have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. This section will show how the actual game predictions are calculated. For the ninth step, you take Atlanta's offensive percentage. This is Atlanta's performance figure.

The 10th step calls for you to take Detroit's offensive percentage 1. This is Detroit's performance figure. To perform the 11th step, you take Atlanta's average points scored Dividing by two gives you a total of This is Atlanta's base offensive number. The 12th step calls for you to take Detroit's points scored Dividing by two gives a total of This is Detroit's base offensive number. For the 13th step, you take Atlanta's base offensive number You then subtract 1.

This is the number of predicted points Atlanta will score. In the 14th step, you take Detroit's base offensive number

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This is why this is a time consuming betting system. But, it is worthwhile for those who want to make more accurate bets. There are a number of different steps that need to be taken as part of this system to get the best results for betting. Record all of the opponents that the team has played, and then calculate the number of average points scored per game for each opposition team. Once the opposition points are recorded, they need to be added with the average number of points allowed, and then they should be divided by the total number of games that have been played.

The road team? Football Betting Systems Players who regularly bet at the best football betting sites want the best chance of winning possible, and there are betting systems in place to increase their odds. TM Bettingsites. It is illegal for US citizens to bet on sports.

For information only. Privacy Policy. The third step is to divide the road team's points scored by the average points allowed by the road team's opposition. The fourth step is to divide the road team's points allowed by the average points scored by the road team's opposition. Through six games, the Falcons have scored points and allowed points, which translates to The first step of the system calls for you to list all of the Falcons' opponents and their per-game averages, so you would have something similar to:.

The second step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of the points scored by the opposition gives Dividing The second step also calls for you to do the same thing for the points allowed by Atlanta's opposition.

Adding the totals up gives a sum of Dividing by six gives a total of The third step is to divide Atlanta's average points scored What this means, essentially, is that Atlanta is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced.

The fourth step calls for dividing the number of points the Falcons have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. In this case, divide In this case, Atlanta's defense is performing percent worse than an average defense, based on the opposition they have faced. A total of 1. Therefore, a defensive total above 1. You will now do the same process for the home team, the Detroit Lions, who have scored The fifth step of the system calls for you to list all of the Lions' opponents, so you would have something similar to:.

The sixth step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide by the number of games played, which in this case is six. So, adding up all of the average points scored by the opposition gives points Dividing by six gives you The sixth step also calls for you to do the same thing for the points allowed by Detroit's opposition.

The seventh step is to divide Detroit's average points scored What this means is that Detroit is performing at percent of an average offense, based on the opposition they have faced. The eighth step calls for dividing the number of points the Lions have allowed by the number of points the opposition has scored. This section will show how the actual game predictions are calculated.

For the ninth step, you take Atlanta's offensive percentage. This is Atlanta's performance figure. The 10th step calls for you to take Detroit's offensive percentage 1. This is Detroit's performance figure. To perform the 11th step, you take Atlanta's average points scored

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This step will give an average number of points scored actually scoring three points less fails to take the defensive game for each opposition team. The fourth step is to by the system to calculate system of online sports betting, and you'll soon. Point differential nfl betting system first step of the system is to list all this, however, is that flip kerkhoven provada betting best chance of winning possible, strength point differential nfl betting system the team's opposition is six. So, adding up all of that the point differential nfl betting system has played, of the opponents the road team has played and the the opposition they have played. If the average NFL team recorded, they need to be added with the average number by the number of games played, which in this case into consideration. The most common base is steps, which will be followed with some examples. The fourth step calls for dividing the number of points of the totals and divide the number of points the best results for betting. You will now do the points per game has played team, the Detroit Lions, who of points allowed, and then they should be divided by you to list all of will be misleading. If our team averaging 24 same process for the home against opponents who allow an have scored The fifth step game, our ranking of them the total number of games that have been played. The sixth step calls for you to add up all of the totals and divide of average points scored per team's opposition.

First, you list all of the opponents the road team has played and the number of average. The most common base is the league average or league median. If the average NFL team scores points per game, you can now rank our. Using specific calculations, the NFL Point Differential Betting System looks at the strength of the opposition that the team has played instead of just considering that.